Like the United States, Germany has been afflicted by major blackouts over the last few years. We spoke with Rudolf Kreutzer, lead author of a study on power supply, about the causes of these blackouts, and how to prevent and cope with them in the future.
 | Rudolf Kreutzer, Head of the Center of Competence for Risk Management of the Allianz Center for Technology"We are running power plants long after the end of their lifespan. Another change of generation is overdue, but is not happening." (Photo: Allianz) |
Dr. Kreutzer, in terms of energy supply, Germany is still relatively secure, yet there have been some paralyzing blackouts in the last few years. Why is this happening?
Public power supply was invented around a century ago. It had its first technological leap after the Second World War through new investment in coal and oil power stations, and a second boost in the seventies and eighties through nuclear power plants. These changes happened worldwide at roughly the same time. Since then, nothing fundamental has happened. Currently, we are running power plants long after the end of their lifespan. Another change of generation is overdue, but is not happening.
Why is there not simply an investment in adequate technological solutions?
We see a direct connection to the deregulation in the late eighties and the regulation of energy supply around the turn of the millennium. Both state-driven initiatives added cost pressure on energy suppliers that hitherto had a monopoly. This rising cost pressure has led to a cutback in investment in service and maintenance.
Energy suppliers fear that regulation is becoming even more heavy handed. They also fear that the power grids, which have been reliable "cash cows," will be taken away from them. Should this happen, the profitability for suppliers becomes unattractive. Investment would go into the billions, and would need to amortize in the long-term. As long as there is no investment security, no investments will be made.
 | Blackout Graphic (click on the image to download)The world's most severe powercuts (Graphic: Allianz) |
European power grids have become increasingly connected. What effects does that have on national grids?
Basically, it intensifies the aforementioned problems. Energy suppliers have to reckon that their customers will switch to cheaper suppliers from other countries. That is not only aggravating the cost pressure, but also putting additional pressure on the grids.
Electricity used to be directed from one central power plant through a kind of cobweb to consumers. Nowadays, the consumer can - if he finds a cheaper supplier, for example - purchase electricity from a power plant further away. These cobwebs, which were originally planned for regional distribution, are now used to transport energy, and that is not what they were designed for.
We have the same problems with renewable energy. If in northern Germany, where we have many wind turbines, there is heavy wind, there is more electricity than is needed there. That means large amounts of electricity are transported via high-voltage lines to southern Germany. They are not designed to bear such strains. If those lines are overstrained, they switch off. Another line of the cobweb then carries even more electricity, is overstrained, and switches off, as well. A cascade effect takes place, which can spread over several countries.
How can we improve energy supply security?
Many experts want to reduce the danger of an overtaxed grid through a more intelligent control of consumption and grid capacity. Thus, to "call in" electricity consumers when the grids have enough capacity. The classic example is the discounted night-produced electricity. A further step would be to control industrial firms in a way that they do not consume at peak times. This would mean a continuous interaction between consumers and energy suppliers.
There are also ideas for Europe-wide regulation. The idea is to better connect the different existing energy sources. For example, we have a lot of hydropower in Norway and a huge potential for solar power in North Africa. These sources are available in different amounts depending on the day or time of the year. To connect them better, we would need giant investments in transcontinental transport lines. That would need to be organized on a European scale.
But the real problem is that the construction of high-voltage lines takes many years. Even if we decided to build them today, it would take another five to ten years until they would be ready. In the meantime, we would have a deficit in transport capacity and experience blackouts again and again.
Is there an alternative?
Increasing energy supply security through technological upgrades is in the end a measure that will lead to a situation where energy consumers deal with energy as always - lavishly. The thoughtless use of energy is the real problem that needs to be tackled. But it is also the most difficult. How can we convince consumers to adopt a sustainable lifestyle?
It is pretty convenient to use electronic appliances, and the more we shift our burden to them, the more dependent we become. Energy is a kind of drug. We can only afford to waste energy if electricity is too cheap. The regulators try to make electricity cheaper and one is constantly tempted to "change to a cheaper power supplier." This is, in my point of view, the wrong strategy. On this point, I share the opinion of Mr. Bernotat, CEO of E.ON, who says "electricity is too cheap."
If blackouts are inevitable, how can we prepare for them?
We have developed at the AZT the 12 "golden rules" for blackouts where we, first and foremost, try to develop awareness. In the coming years, we will experience blackouts on a scale we have not seen before. If electricity is gone, there will be no light, no heating, and mobiles won't function, nor will petrol pumps or public transportation. The longer power is out - hours, days, weeks - the more dramatic the consequences.
In Germany, as well as most other parts of Europe, nobody is prepared for this. If it happens in such a comfortable time as we live in, people will be left feeling faint. The more one mentally acquaints oneself with what a blackout means, the better people will react. On one hand, they will use energy more consciously and think of how they can prevent such a case. On the other hand, they will stay cooler once confronted with such a situation.
Furthermore, I think we need to promote a change in the understanding of energy. The more unaware someone is, the more dependent he is on energy. We need to promote creativity; mental energy, as I call it. The more mental energy someone has, the smarter he will use physical primary energy. I think mental energy is the energy of the future
editor: Miriam Wolf
publishing date: January 31, 2008
