After decades of urban growth, one-child family policy and other population control mechanisms, China is now bracing for the rapid aging of its population. Expert Du Peng explains how.
 | Du Peng, Director, Institute of Gerontology at Renmin University in Beijing"Young people are migrating to developed areas and leaving their parents behind." (Photo: Du Peng) |
How quickly is China's population aging?
The proportion of the population aged 65 and over reached 7 percent in 2001. It will have doubled to 14 percent by 2027. This rate is much quicker than in European countries, but slower than in Japan, Thailand, Korea, and Singapore. By 2050, the proportion of the population over 65 will be 23 percent.
In 2005, the old age dependency ratio was 16 percent, meaning that every 100 working-age people had to support 16 elderly people. By 2030, they will have to support 40 elderly people.
China has huge variations among provinces. In 2005, Shanghai had the highest proportion of elderly aged 65 and over – 11.9 percent – while at the other extreme, Ningxia province had only 6 percent. Generally, eastern areas have the highest proportions of elderly because of the higher socio-economic development there. Life expectancy is higher than 80 years in Shanghai and Beijing, and the total fertility rate is only around 1.0, much lower than in European cities.
What is the impact on Chinese society?
The elderly population is going to play a more important role in politics due to its increasing voting power. Generational relationships need to be improved, because the current rapid economic development favors the younger generation and is enlarging the income differences between generations.
 | Picture Gallery (click on the image to start)Living longer lifes, more people shun the idea of retirement and start a second career in their later years. Learn more |
The emerging issue is that the rural elderly can’t depend on the traditional family support system anymore. Young people are migrating to developed areas and leaving their parents behind. According to the 2005 National Survey, this “floating population” of migrants is 147 million people.
Because the migrants can’t get equal status and welfare rights as other city residents due to the hukou system of residential qualification, they can’t bring their families with them. This is the cause of these new living arrangements, which lead to a much higher proportion of elderly people in some rural areas than in cities.
What is the government's response? How will China take care of its elderly?
It is recognized as a big problem by the government. The China National Committee on Aging was established, including 25 ministers for policymaking and implementation. A law protecting the rights and benefits of the elderly has been in place for 11 years.
Shanghai and Beijing now have more elderly people than children. This has shifted government budget allocations towards the elderly. Social services for the elderly have been developing fast. The culture has been changing to adapt to the aging population.
Social security coverage for the elderly in cities is fine, but it is still a problem in rural areas where only six percent of the elderly can live on the pensions the government provides. Most of them have to depend on their own labor or family support. The government is going to develop a social security system in the next four or five years to cover all of the elderly.
Will the government relax its birth control policies to redress the imbalance between the elderly and young?
Yes, I think so. The National Population Development Strategy published last year set a target of stabilizing the total fertility rate at 1.8 over the next three decades. It mentions that excessively low fertility is not good for development in an aging society. Currently couples that are both single children can have two children. Future policy may allow couples where one partner is a single child to have two children.
Will the age of retirement in China rise with an aging population?
In 15 years time, China will have a smaller labor force and this may prompt changes in the retirement system, such as postponing the retirement age. I think the retirement age will finally be postponed and a flexible retirement system will be adopted.
Unlike European countries, China has a large enough labor force, and it will increase from the current 720 million to 800 million by 2020. China’s current problem is providing enough jobs for its young people, so in the short term, it will not be possible to change the retirement age.
editor: James Tulloch
publishing date: August 19, 2008
