Three demographic trends – fertility, aging, and immigration – will shape French society and economic growth in the 21st century.
 | Elderly French voters take ballots with the names of candidates in the first round of presidential elections in April 2007 (Photo: Reuters) |
Aging despite fertility
Aging is the demographic trend that concerns French policymakers most. While France can be proud that its citizens are living longer, the older its population gets, the more state revenues will go to pensions, health care, and social services.
Pensions are particularly problematic. The French government currently spends around 12 percent of its GDP on them - a figure that could increase to 15 percent by mid-century. As life expectancy rises in France, so does the average payout period.
To make things more challenging, the number of pensioners per person of working age is set to rise by more than 75 percent by 2040. In short, there will be fewer working people to support pensioners. Although the ratio will be even more unfavorable in Italy and Japan - the two oldest countries in the world - France will have to reform its retirement and pension scheme if it is to remain economically viable.
 | Infographic (click on the image to enlarge)A five-country comparison of the average number of children per woman (Graphic: Allianz) |
These reforms will have to happen sooner than later, because the first of the postwar baby boom generation are now reaching the official retirement age of 60. This will increase the number of annual retirements by around 200,000. France will still have to cope with an older population long after the baby boom generation passes from the scene. By mid-century, the number of people over 60 in France is expected to double.
France continues to boast the second-highest fertility rate in Europe, but experts at the French National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) expect the current surplus of annual births over deaths will shrink in the coming decades because of the increasing death rate. The only way to ensure an increasing population would then be through immigration.
Immigration and integration
Over the last few decades, immigration - particularly from outside of Europe - has become a more prominent issue in French politics. Prior to the oil shocks and rising unemployment of the 1970s, most immigrants came to France to work. Today, up to 70 percent of immigration to France is family related.
France has long accepted and successfully integrated migrants, mostly from within Europe. Today, over half of the 140,000 non-European immigrants that arrive in France each year, over 40 percent come from Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, or Turkey.
Integration into French society continues to be a challenge for many groups. Frustration is apparent, both with French voters who support tighter immigration policies, as well with as second- and third-generation immigrants who complain of discrimination.
Many immigrants are also concentrated in France's poor suburbs, such as those engulfed by riots in the Autumn 2005, where unemployment, poverty, and malaise among young people are alarmingly high. The controversy over the 2004 ban on wearing religious symbols in schools (including headscarves) exposed ongoing discord between historically secular French society and its religious minorities.
We examine some policy responses to these trends here.
editor: Valdis Wish
publishing date: February 19, 2008
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