Will France have Europe’s biggest population by 2050? A look ahead at population growth and other demographic changes coming to France.
 | An elderly man prepares for a swim in southwestern France (Photo: Reuters) |
The population of metropolitan France is expected to grow by 9 million over the next four decades, which will put France's population somewhere around 70 million people by 2050. This scenario assumes that fertility will remain around the current level (around two children per woman), while mortality continues to decrease and net migration is around 100,000 people a year.
After more than two hundred years, this would put France back in the race for Europe's most populous country. By mid-century, the U.S.-based Population Reference Bureau predicts Germany's population will have shrunk to 71 million (from 82 million today), while Britain's population will have increased to 69 million (from 61 million today). French government statistics suggest that by this time, the French population will stabilize at around 71 million people.
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Whether or not these projections come to pass depends on a variety of factors and policy decisions. One thing, however, remains certain - the aging of the French population will continue until at least mid-century. According to the French National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), between 28 and 30 percent of the French population will be 60 or older by 2033.
Projections for future migration patterns and ethnic composition are difficult, since they depend on a variety of domestic and EU policy and international factors. Over the last eight years, for example, net migration in France has fluctuated significantly. After year-on-year growth from 2000 to 2004, France's net migration began a downturn in 2005. In 2007, net migration dropped sharply to around 71,000 people - down from 90,000 people in 2006.
editor: Valdis Wish
publishing date: February 19, 2008
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