China’s one-child policy is the world’s most ambitious population control program ever. David Phillips, professor of social policy at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, explains whether it has been a success or a hindrance to China’s future.
 | David Phillips, Sociology Professor, Lingnan University (Hong Kong), Founding Director Asia Pacific Institute of Ageing Studies"Perhaps 20 percent of young men won’t be able to find partners in a society where marriage is almost universal." (Photo: Phillips) |
China’s one-child policy has been in place for nearly 30 years. Has it worked?
It has certainly worked up to a point because Chinese total fertility rate is now about 1.7 children per women, whilst the natural replacement rate is 2.1 children. It has worked in that population growth has been somehow contained. If you look at some projections to the middle of the century, there are scenarios suggesting that China’s population growth will even smooth out.
However, at the moment, there are quite large numbers of people of childbearing age between 20 and 40 despite the one-child policy. The government believes there could be a population rebound because more middle-class Chinese can afford to pay the fines or costs associated with having more than the permitted number of children.
So if people are able to flout the rules, how effectively is the one-child policy enforced?
Perhaps rather than calling it a one-child policy, it is better to call it a population policy. In the 1980s, it was a rather negative policy with reports of forced sterilizations and abortions, but it has become a little more flexible. Although the majority of people are currently covered by the one-child mandate, there are considerable regional variations, and it is very much about implementation at the local level.
For example, in large cities, if you have more than one child, you may have to pay a fine. In less-dense urban areas, the policy hovers between one and two children. In rural areas, if the first child is a girl you might get permission to have another child, and in (non-Han) ethnic areas, there is effectively no regulation. It is very difficult to generalize.
 | Infographic (click on the image to enlarge)A five-country comparison, including China, of the average number of children per woman (Graphic: Allianz) |
Skeptics argue China’s fertility rate would have decreased naturally with increased socio-economic development.
They have a good point. I don’t think there is anywhere that has seen its economy develop as rapidly as China that has not also seen a decline in fertility. The fertility rate might have gone down without the state policies, but it would have done so more slowly. The government felt it couldn’t rely on a natural fall in fertility rates, especially because of the projections and probable pressure on resources seen at the time of the initial one-child policy.
How many of the 400 million fewer births the Chinese government claims as a direct result of state policy are actually down to family decisions? A lot of research quotes Chinese people saying the cost of living and job opportunities mean they are sticking to one child anyway. Also, in urban China, it is often easier for women to get jobs than men, and so there is arguably less incentive for women to have many children.
The policy has caused large gender imbalances in China. What will be the results?
There is a remarkable gender imbalance. The official figure is around 117 boys born per 100 girls, but in some townships they have between 120 and 140 boys to 100 girls. In nature, there are generally about 105 boys born per 100 girls.
If it carries on, perhaps 20 percent of young men won’t be able to find partners in a society where marriage is almost universal. Ironically, this could create a worsening situation for women where they become bargaining chips. The key is that girls must be seen as of equal value to boys. In the long term, it could average out because women live longer than men. But younger females are generally caregivers, so there will be fewer women around to care for elderly parents.
There is also the downside of bringing up many “little emperors.” The Chinese government is concerned that all of these only sons will be highly educated and not work in the manufacturing sectors where China is prospering. Labor shortages mean higher labor costs, making China less competitive. In reality, we don’t know what will happen because this kind of large imbalance in a very large population has never been seen in history.
The OECD has said that China is sitting on a demographic timebomb. Is that true?
Basically, they are correct. You’ve got a youngish eastern seaboard because of inward migration, but elsewhere, cities without migrants are growing older because of the effects of the one-child policy. In lots of villages, there are only the elderly and the children left. People in their 20s and 30s have left for jobs in the cities and left their children behind.
For 30 years, the Chinese government has been formulating population policy in parallel with economic reform, development policy, labor supply, and the winding down of previous social security and health systems. Now, there are big question marks about the policy.
Some Chinese population institutes say the country must relax its policy because of labor shortages, family disruption, and the aging of many cities or areas. The Chinese are debating whether they should maintain a strong population policy. Some say the policy will be maintained for the next few decades; others say it will be gone within five years.
editor: James Tulloch
publishing date: August 26, 2008
