Looking ahead to 2050, aging and population decline are the key trends that will define Germany's demographic future.
 | Pensioners enjoy a beer at Munich's annual Oktoberfest (Photo: Reuters) |
If current birthrate and immigration levels continue and average life expectancy rises by seven years, Germany's population will sink to around 69-71 million people by mid-century, down from over 82 million today.
The main reason for this is a shortage of births. Even if fertility rates gradually rise due to successful family policies, there will still be fewer potential mothers in the coming generation because fertility rates have been far below "replacement level" (2.1 children per women) for over thirty years. Meanwhile, the number of deaths per year is expected to increase in the coming decades as the baby boomers reach old age.
The population distribution will also look much different in 2050 - mainly, much older. Whereas around 61 percent of the population is of working age (20-65) today, this figure will drop to 50 percent of the population by 2050. Only 15 percent of the population will be younger than 20, which is roughly the same fraction of the population that will be over 80. The average German will be 50 years old.
The demographic and economic divisions between the country's eastern and western states are also likely to continue. Despite some pockets of relative prosperity around large cities like Leipzig and Berlin, where populations are expected to grow, most of eastern Germany will continue to see steep population decline. Cities like Jena and Chemnitz could see their populations drop by over 20 percent by 2020.
One variable that could affect Germany's future population is immigration, though recent migration patterns make predicting the future difficult. While net migration to Germany was 272,000 people in 2001, it dropped to 22,000 in 2006 before almost doubling again in 2007 to 43,000.
Future migration trends mostly depend on the availability of jobs and the direction of the immigration policy, which determines who can stay in Germany to work.
editor: Valdis Wish
publishing date: July 21, 2008
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