England has the world's longest climate record, which goes back to the 1660s. But nine out of ten hottest years recorded in England occurred in the last 18 years. The impacts of this trend are already visible around the British Isles.
 | FloodingA telephone box sits in flood waters in Sheffield in June 2007. Annual damages from flooding could reach 22 billion pounds in the UK by 2080, fifteen times what it is today (Photo: Reuters) |
Rainfall and Agriculture
For one, precipitation will change: winter rainfall is expected to get heavier, while summer rainfall will slightly decline. Summers will be drier; winters will be milder and wetter. Summer heat waves are happening more frequently than in centuries past. Migratory birds arrive earlier than before. Changes are also evident in insect populations, soil composition, biodiversity, river flows, and the growth of vegetation and crops.
Unlike many other countries, where climate change will only exacerbate food and water scarcity, British farmers may actually see some "benefits" from a warming climate. Warmer and longer summers give farmers the opportunity to grow exotic teas, grapes for wine, and "energy crops," such as grains and oilseeds to produce biofuels. In the long-run, however, various impacts of climate change, including winter cold spells, drier soils, changing precipitation, and distribution of parasites may present difficult challenges for UK farmers.
Ocean Currents and Floods
Researchers are also looking at the impact of a slowing Atlantic Gulf Stream, a strong ocean current that affects weather in Britain and Europe. The Gulf Stream may be sensitive to global warming, and a slowing or collapse of its North Atlantic branch would likely have a significant cooling effect on Britain and Scandinavia.
Rising sea levels will, as elsewhere, affect coastal erosion and increase the flood risk along the British coasts. Much of London, for example, is located in the floodplain of the River Thames and its tributaries, making the city more prone to flood damage than any other urban area in Britain. According to a government report, climate change could increase the flood risk in the UK capital, home to over 7 million people, by increasing the intensity of storms and rainfall.
Economic Losses
These effects naturally have economic consequences, as highlighted by the 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, which Blair called the "the most important report on the future published by the Government in our time in office." The study suggested that climate change could eventually cause annual damages worth anywhere between 5 and 20 percent of global gross domestic product (for reference, one percent of global GDP is currently around 400 US billion dollars).
According to a 2006 Friends of the Earth report, annual damages from flooding alone could reach 22 billion pounds in the UK by 2080, fifteen times what it is today. Summer hot spells would also have costly effects. An extreme example was the European heat wave in 2003, which killed around 20,000 people (2,000 in the UK), and caused an estimated 10 billion US dollars in agricultural losses.
Sources: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, The Guardian, DEFRA, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, BBC, Reuters, Forum for the Future, Friends of the Earth
editor: Valdis Wish
publishing date: July 8, 2007
