Critics of drastic action against climate change say countries like Germany might actually profit from rising temperatures. Still, economic, environmental and public health impacts will be considerable in Germany.
 | DroughtThe Elbe River in Dresden at a record low in Spring 2007. The year prior, Dresden was struck by a record spring flood. (Photo: Reuters) |
A March 2007 report from the German Institute for Economic Research calculated the potential cost of climate change for the country at 800 billion euros by the year 2050. Although the figure is disputed, it nonetheless illustrates some of the serious challenges that climate change could present in Germany.
Environment
Scientists at the Max Planck Institute said last year that average temperatures in Germany may increase by between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius during the 21st century. According to Germanwatch, this increase would cause a number of environmental changes in Germany, including changing rain patterns, flooding, heat waves and more winter storms, high winds and even tornados.
Earlier this year, a study commissioned by the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) used weather modeling to examine future effects of climate change in different regions throughout Germany. In the northern lowlands, precipitation could fall by up to fifty percent this century, causing droughts and affecting farming. Agriculture and infrastructure would also be affected by increasing and more severe winter storms, such as windstorm “Kyrill” that swept across Germany in January 2007. Other parts of Germany will see more rain, particularly in the winter. Low mountain ranges such as the Eifel, Hunsrück, Odenwald and Spessart could see 80 percent increases in winter rainfall by the end of the century. More days of heavy rain will put pressure on municipal sewage and water management systems, and will cause Germany’s northern waterways – such as the Elbe and Oder river basins – to flood more frequently.
Health
The heat wave of 2003 with about 7,000 victims in Germany was another big wake up call. That summer’s soaring temperatures killed 30,000 people in Europe, making it the continent’s deadliest natural disaster in over a century. Recent studies suggest that such summers could “become the norm” in Europe in the coming decades. Aside from the health impacts of heat waves, warming temperatures in Germany may enable the northern migration of insect-borne diseases, such as malaria and meningitis, and an increase in asthma- and heart-related ailments across the country. Changing rainfall patterns could also prolong the allergy season, which affects millions of Germans each year.
A study conducted by researchers at the University of Bonn found that biodiversity in Germany could change due to increases in temperature and more rainfall. Warmer parts of Germany could eventually be home to orchids and Mediterranean oak trees.
Higher temperatures will amplify the distribution of pests that destroy trees and crops. Veteran Bavarian forester and WWF “climate witness” Georg Sperber has observed that pests such as bark beetles and oak procession moths – once rarities – now thrive in German forests. Drier climates also increase the danger of forest fires and weakens a tree’s resistance to pests.
Tourism
Climate change also threatens to take a lot of the fun out of winter vacations to the Alps, melting the snow that draws millions of tourists each year to the mountains and ski resorts. According to the OECD, the German ski industry is most vulnerable of all Alpine countries: one-degree of warming would reduce the number of naturally snow-reliable ski areas by up to sixty percent.
editor: Valdis Wish
publishing date: June 4, 2007
