In 2001 a groundbreaking report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shocked the world and divided the scientific community. Six years later the most influential authority on climate change on this planet is releasing a new report showing that climate change is 'very likely' man-induced and advancing faster than ever. The facts are without ambiguity, the politics aren't.
 | The IPCC links global warming to human activities: The heat is on. |
This time around it is not so much about shocking surprises. Last May, drafts of the first volume of the forthcoming "Climate Change Report 2007" were leaked to journalists, who published the report's grim conclusions about the rapid pace of global warming in the mainstream media. Global temperatures, it said, could rise by up to 5.8 degrees Celsius during the 21st century. And it is "very likely", the scientists say, that humans are the ones to blame.
Since then, governments have tried to influence the wording of the final report. The IPCC may well be the world's leading body on climate change, but is also one of the most politicized scientific panels. The IPCC's working procedure selects scientists to compile drafts to which governments can make amendments. The idea is simple: By sending its findings to governments for approval, the report may lose some of its scientific credibility but reflects an international consensus, and thus simplifies global action against global warming.
There is little doubt, according to the leaked drafts, as to the cause of recent warming. Over the last hundred years more carbon dioxide had been released into our atmosphere than in the 20,000 years before. Between 1999 and 2005 carbon dioxide output increased from 6.5 billion to 7.2 billion tons per year. One would have to go back more than 650,000 years to a time of geologic upheaval to find corresponding levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
 | The IPCC report makes a connection between severe storms, floods, and human-induced climate change. |
According to the leaked version, there has been a rise in global temperatures of about 0.65 degrees Celsius in the last century. Glacier flow in Greenland has sped up, and sea levels have risen by a few millimeters. Even if we could stabilize carbon dioxide output at current levels, temperatures would go on rising for years to come due to the system’s inherent inertia- all the more reason for urgent action to reduce emissions. Now, with the IPCC’s first volume on “The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change” due, climate change is back on the public agenda and hot as ever.
90 percent of reliable scientists support the climate change theory
According to Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the scientists contributing to the IPCC report, the basic facts have not changed much since last year. He says that there are still a number of uncertainties about climate change, like the question of whether clouds have a cooling or a warming influence.
Uncertainty that regarding the IPCC’s findings could be seen in an article published by the UK daily The Observer, which reported scientific disagreement over whether the Antarctic ice shield has been affected by global warming. But regardless of such debates, 90 percent of the scientific community supports the notion that climate change is man-made, says Schellnhuber, a notion that the forthcoming IPCC report underpins.
Intense debates on the political implications
The problem now is not so much scientific uncertainty, but rather the politics of climate change. The Guardian newspaper reported the dissatisfaction of the US government regarding what was perceived as the IPCC’s one-sided and “Kyoto-centric” approach to addressing climate change. It should, argue some US officials, rather emphasize voluntary non-binding agreements.
Governments, journalists and the scientific community have known for quite a while what to expect from the scientific data included in the first volume of the IPCC's newest report. The coming weeks and months will nonetheless see intense debate among IPCC members and their governments about the report’s final wording and recommendations. The subsequent volumes “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” and “Mitigation of Climate Change” will be released until May 2007. They deal with how to react to climate change, and hold the potential for intense political struggle.
It is then that officials from all over the world will come forward with their strategies on how to tackle global warming. The top UN official for the environment, Achim Steiner, seems to think that the time is right for the next big climate initiative. He has called for an international summit to fight climate change and negotiate a post-Kyoto agreement.
The IPCC
Since its foundation in 1988 by the United Nations and World Meteorological Organization, the IPCC has published periodic reports about current scientific knowledge of climate change and its impacts. Its findings have influenced major international climate initiatives, such as the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or its famous amendment, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
The IPCC does not conduct new research, but draws on data and reports from leading scientists. The preparation of IPCC Reports follows a three-step procedure. First, the reports are compiled by teams of authors selected by governments based on their expertise. In the second step, there work undergoes review by experts, and then by governments. Finally, the reports have to be accepted at a IPCC Plenary session. It is also there that the summaries for policymakers are drafted and approved line by line.
So far, the IPCC has published three assessment reports on the state of climate change science and its implications for policymakers. The fourth report draws on the work of some 800 contributors from 130 countries. It was review by more than 2500 scientists worldwide. The first volume focuses on the current state of climate change science and the latest findings. Volume two looks at the impact climate change will have on the environment and societies and how they can adapt. The third volume will deal with the options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating their impact. The synthesis report will sum up the scenarios and translate them into projections for different world regions. It will also suggest strategies for adaptation and mitigation.
editor: Thilo Kunzemann
publishing date: February 2, 2007
