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Looking Ahead to Bali with Tempered Optimism

The Climate Group is an international non-profit that works with business and government to accelerate climate solutions and achieve a low carbon global economy. The organization’s policy director, Mark Kenber, is confident that the UN climate talks in Bali will pave the way to an international climate protection treaty.


Looking Ahead to Bali with Tempered Optimism

Mark Kenber, Policy Director, The Climate Group

“Above all, business leaders need to keep pressure on political leaders to agree to a global deal” (Photo: The Climate Group)

 

With the Nobel Prize going to Al Gore and the IPCC, and the IPCC's grim reports on global warming, is there more momentum and urgency for climate talks than a year ago?

There is clearly a greater sense of urgency in the international community than a year ago, with the factors you mentioned being key drivers. Other factors include greater evidence that climate change is already happening, the understanding that the costs of inaction far outweigh the costs of action, and recognition that many of the solutions are already available and, in many cases, being profitably implemented. Bali needs to pick up on this momentum with governments committing to start negotiations on a post-2012 policy framework, and complete them by 2009.


Looking Ahead to Bali with Tempered Optimism

Picture Gallery (click the image to start)

A round-up of the key issues on the table at the UN Bali climate talks (Photo: Reuters)

 

When these negotiations do begin, are you optimistic that they will lead to an effective new climate treaty?

It is not clear if the goals and outcomes of these negotiations will be commensurate with the emissions reductions that the science tells us are needed. There are a number of industrialized countries still reluctant to commit to binding absolute cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, and it is far from clear that developing countries are prepared to take on commitments themselves, so unfortunately any optimism should be tempered for now.

What are the major stumbling blocks in the negotiations?

The major stumbling blocks remain – as they have for some time – the lack of consensus over what kinds of targets and commitments industrialized and developing countries should take on; there are concerns over the possibility of large outflows of capital from countries that already have budgetary problems; some people are worried about competitiveness impacts of carbon constraints, particularly on employment, and broader links with trade flows.

 

And there are more immediate concerns, such as wars, credit crises, and high energy prices; and disagreements between countries in areas such as security and human rights that will spill over into climate negotiations.


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Do you expect the Bali talks to address some of those?

Bali will not directly address these issues – except perhaps the first – though negotiators will still have to take them into account over the next two years. However, I am reasonably confident, barring a major recession or new conflict, that the urgency felt by most countries about reaching a new agreement by 2009 will overcome many, if not all the blocks.

 

Have recent government and business initiatives changed the international approach to climate change?

Businesses have demonstrated that low-carbon solutions are both practical and affordable. This has played a key role in convincing policymakers that climate policy need not have a detrimental effect on competitiveness, productivity, employment, and growth. This has helped shift the debate from merely one of impacts and damage to one of solutions.

 

This, in turn, has been helped by the emergence of business groups calling for clear and consistent policies that create a robust investment environment for low-carbon technologies and services. In this vein, one can mention the work of The Climate Group, U.S. Climate Action Partnership, Corporate Leaders Group, and Green Power Market Development Group, among others.

 

The private sector can show how the necessary investments in low carbon development in the developing world can be made and what incentives will be most effective for stimulating emissions reductions. And above all, business leaders need to keep pressure on political leaders to agree to a global deal.

 

editor: Valdis Wish

publishing date: November 29, 2007

 


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