Scientists estimate that one quarter of all untapped oil and gas reserves lie in the Arctic. Global warming is making them accessible, prompting intense competition for the resources of the North. Science journalist Christoph Seidler describes this “Arctic Monopoly”.
 | Christoph Seidler, Author and Science Journalist, Spiegel.de"The Arctic Ocean, which is still considered international waters and therefore part of the common heritage of mankind, will be divided up to a large extent." (Photo: Christoph Seidler) |
Some scientists say the Arctic could be ice-free in summer in a few decades. Is that true?
Longterm trends show that the extent of the ice is declining. Depending on which forecast one looks at, the Arctic will be ice free in the summer in some years, in any case in this century. But one thing has become clear in recent years, it will happen one day and sooner rather than later.
Climate change happens much faster in the Arctic than anywhere else. We have a positive feedback up there. Until now, the white ice that covers the Arctic Ocean reflected most sunlight back into the universe.
But with the sea ice shrinking more and more sunlight is absorbed by dark water and thus heates the ocean. The whole Arctic system is warming and that creates a vicious circle. The less ice we have, the more warming we will get.
What does Arctic warming mean for economic and political interests? What is at stake?
The coastal states hope to gain access to resources like oil and gas and control over new shipping routes. The melting ice makes way for routes that shorten the sea route between Europe and Asia by thousands of miles.
There is an international treaty, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea that has been signed by all five polar nations, except the United States, which has sovereignty concerns. The treaty stipulates that coastal states can claim underwater territories, if - simply put - the seabed is connected to their landmass.
This means that the Arctic Ocean, which is still considered international waters and therefore part of the common heritage of mankind, will be divided up to a large extent.
 | Picture Gallery (click on the image to start)Arctic ice is melting faster than ever. See how this changes the North Pole |
In 2007, a Russian expedition put up a flag on the seabed at the North Pole. Is it now Russian territory?
From a legal perspective the dive was just symbolic; and the Kremlin always said that it was a private undertaking. But Artur Chilingarov, the man behind the trip, is a close friend of Prime Minister Putin and a member of parliament. So it’s fair to say that this expedition represents Russia’s perception: large parts of the Arctic are Russian, and the North Pole is Russian as well.
On the international level, Russian tried to play down the dive. Officials said that the fact that the Americans put up their flag on the moon doesn’t mean that the moon is U.S. territory. But internally things sounded a bit more enthusiastic.
Russia’s relationship with the Arctic is much more extreme and emotional than in any other country. Russia has been in the Arctic for decades. Hundreds of thousands of Russians live beyond the Arctic Circle.
Video: Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Coverage from 1978 to 2008
Do you see some potential for conflict?
So far, the polar states have tried to show unity. In 2008, a meeting in Greenland underlined that there would be no race for the North Pole. But that is far from sure, because the UN convention didn’t create any authority that could solve disputes resulting from overlapping territorial claims.
Consequently, when Russian, Danish, and Canadian claims overlap at the pole - and they will -, there is no one who can settle this conflict. Jane’s Intelligence Review, a British military magazine, estimates that there might be regional military conflicts in the Arctic after 2020.
Assuming the Arctic gets warmer, will it be possible to exploit its resources?
That is an important point. The "Exxon Valdez" catastrophe in 1989 showed what happens when human failure and technical problems coincide in an Arctic environment. Exploiting oil and gas in the Arctic comes at the price of a high risk. It will probably happen nevertheless. The question is: Under what conditions? Will the Arctic countries manage to set up common rules and regulations?
There are already guidelines for shipping established by the UN, but they are voluntary. It would be a good first move to make them mandatory.
Who will win this Arctic monopoly?
Russia will do best if it acts cooperatively. If Russian companies team up with foreign partners, from Norway for example, to develop oil projects, for example, then they will profit most.
Norway is the country that is technologically most advanced, they already produce natural gas north of the Arctic Circle in a factory at the seafloor. But Norway depends on a politically stable environment in its neighbourhood.
Greenland, which is on the road to independency, is also developing its first oil projects, but the country will also be the most affected by the negative impacts of climate change. Canada and the United States have probably already missed their chance and won’t make much headway for years, even if they intensify their efforts now.
But we shouldn’t forget one thing: No matter what expert you are talking to, they all say that Arctic oil and gas won’t solve the world’s energy problems. The Arctic probably holds about one quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas resources. That will be enough to earn a few billion dollars, but the Arctic won’t become the next Saudi Arabia.
editor: Thilo Kunzemann
publishing date: October 29, 2009
About the book (German only):
Christoph Seidler
Arktisches Monopoly, Der Kampf um die Rohstoffe der Polarregion,
Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt DVA, München, April 2009, ISBN 978-3421044150, 19,95 Euro
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