Environment: Interview

What will the climate be like in 2100?

Stanford University climatologist Stephen Schneider discusses what we know and don’t know about the future of the Earth’s climate.
September 2007 brought record sea ice melt in the Arctic. Sea ice extent was 38 percent below .../ Credits: Reuters

What will the Earth's climate be like at the end of this century?
What's the old joke? Prediction is hard, especially about the future. How do you predict the climate of 2100? Well, you have to know how much CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, aerosols—that's dust and smoke—are going to be there, because that changes what we call the forcing—the pressures on the climate system—to be warmer or colder. We know it's going to be warmer. That's virtually certain.

But we don't know what these levels are going to be on the basis of any history. There's never been a time before when there was six to ten billion people on the Earth, when they're demanding dramatic increases in their standards of living, and when they're using the cheapest available technology—usually coal and oil burning—to get there. So, before you can forecast how warm it will be in 2100—and whether it's worth a trillion-dollar investment not to have that outcome—you've got to know a bunch of social factors.

What kinds of social factors?
How many people are in the world? What standards of living do they have? That's population times GDP per capita—a typical measure of standard of living. Then you have to multiply that by how much energy per unit of GDP they consume. We call that energy intensity. It's critically important. And how do we know if people are going to take this problem seriously? 

What are the possible climate scenarios for the end of this century?
Greenhouse gas concentrations double pre-industrial levels and then come down like a steep ski slope because we've invented our way out of the problem with new high technology, and we deploy it starting in 2020. By the end of the century we will have increased carbon dioxide by, say, 80 percent of pre-industrial levels. That, I'm sorry to say, is a good scenario.

The bad scenario is business as usual. We keep getting richer as fast as we can. We do what we did in the Victorian Industrial Revolution in the rich countries: sweat shops, coal-burning internal combustion engines. Well, what do you think China and India are doing?

Which scenario is likely?

The estimate (for increased temperatures) is between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius during the next 25 years. Very recently, the IPCC narrowed it to between 2 and 4.5 degrees. They call that "likely." Well, likely means two-thirds to ninety percent. So, that still means there's a 5-7 percent chance it could be "lucky"—below two degrees—or "really unlucky" - above 4.5.

The worst of all worlds is an increase of more than seven degrees. That's an astronomically large number, because an ice age is about six degrees cooler than an interglacial that we're now in. And we're talking about a ten-percent chance it's as large a temperature difference as an ice age to an interglacial cycle, but happening in a century; not in five thousand years.

That's an easy prescription for a catastrophic outcome with regard to species extinction, coastal damage, fires, heat waves, droughts, and floods. As Bill Clinton said when I first presented this in the White House in 1997, "all the biblical stuff."

Find more information in the ALLIANZ KNOWLEDGE DATABASE!

Delve into our world of knowledge. The Open Knowledge Database offers you insights in the knowledge, skills and experience Allianz has accumulated in over 120 years of business.

Write a Comment

Comments (42)

dev dongol: 21.08.2011, 18:20

We are explaining the cause of GW and CC wrong way. Correct reasoning scientifically can stop them in less than 2 months. For details please visit my blog: devbahadurdongol.blogspot.com

In the blog I have also pointed out the mistake done in the hydropower engineering. Correction of the mistake will give us unlimited hydropower. My email address is dev.dangol@yahoo.co.uk

Dr. Dev

jhorna Halder: 06.07.2011, 14:43

At first i want to give thanks to Stephen Schneider for informing us about climate change and global warming.If we want to save the world we have to minimize those activities which are responsible for global warming.As a disaster management student, i think we have to work together against global warming.

gina amoyen: 08.11.2010, 22:54

we have to do something before the world melts down. Thanks to people like Stephen Schneider for giving information on what is happening to let the people of the world know about global warming and climate change. kudos! keep up the good work!!!
let us unite to sustain our lives and maintain our habitat.

Eric Brattstrom: 05.11.2010, 16:53

After reading a lot of Alan Weisman, Derrick Jenkins, James Hansen,et al I feel a bit negative. But my wife and I recently participated in Bill McKibben's 350.org event and are reinvigorated. We cannot allow overpopulation and the burning of the remainder of our fossil fuels do us in. Our grandchildren will thank us.

Ryan Rider: 31.10.2010, 22:30

This is important stuff, thank you for telling everyone about it... Very interesting.

Nandkishor Sharma: 22.10.2010, 15:12

we should do more and more planting and stop the cut tree

Henrik Hansson: 21.10.2010, 09:04

you suck!!!! the global warming is only getting worse!!!!
The polar bears have no were to live and they will die !!!! shame on you people!!!!

Arif Ali: 31.07.2010, 08:59

Sir you information is tremendous i'm surprized after learning this my knowledge has been increases thanks alot Sir

Sheen Annika Esmeralda: 26.04.2010, 16:50

It's sad to know majority of the people are not doing about it esp those in power, and sad thing is there are solutions- solar, wind energy, more trees and plants etc...

People just sit and wait what happens, people and organizations of power and influence are not promoting ways of living that are healthy for us, environment and our kids!!! If i hadn't researched about it because of the increasing heat that's been going on I haven't known about these renewable energy sources!

Do we sit and wait until we burn because of peoples' greed??? how pathetic

victor mafemani: 24.04.2010, 21:58

very consern about the clamate change

Search for related articles