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Demography: Video

Prosperity strategies in aging societies

Yves Leterme, OECD deputy secretary general

At the Berlin Demography Forum 2013, Yves Leterme discusses how aging societies can maintain population balance, economic growth and intergenerational solidarity.

Yves Leterme, deputy secretary general of the OECD, discusses his prescriptions for aging societies seeking to maintain their prosperity.

To keep economic and social stability in advanced economies, and fortify the social welfare state, policymakers should strengthen family policies and let grandparents take some of the strain, urges Leterme, the former Prime Minister of Belgium, who also argues that popular perceptions that the young are paying for the welfare of the old are wrong.

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Demography World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2013

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Demography

World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2013

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Chronic fiscal imbalance (1/10)

After a trillion euros of cash was lent to Europe's banks from the European Central Bank in early 2012, by mid-year markets were plagued with fears that Spain might follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in needing a financial bailout. On January 10, Spain will begin selling its debt in the form of government bonds; the Spanish Treasury says it plans to sell €121.3 billion ($158.53 billion) worth of bonds in 2013, which it hopes will help it avert further financial crisis.

In the final months of 2012, U.S. legislators only narrowly thwarted the “fiscal cliff” crisis – a crucial impass of expiring tax cuts with planned budget federal spending cuts – underlining the country’s ongoing struggle with its massive debt load. (Source: Reuters)
Water supply crises (2/10)

Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the world's population, live in areas of physical water scarcity, and another 1.6 billion people face economic water shortage in which countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers and aquifers, according to the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Water shortages have serious implications for health and stability, according to the InterAction Council (IAC), a group of 40 prominent former government leaders and heads of state, which released an August 2012 report warning, “Using water the way we have in the past simply will not sustain humanity in future." (Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) )
Mismanagement of population aging (3/10)

The aging of the world’s population will require changes to healthcare and pension systems, as well as reassessment of labor markets, infrastructure and transportation. The number of persons over the age of 60 will exceed 1 billion in less than 10 years, according to the United Nations – that’s about 15% of the world’s current total population, and equal to the population of the continent of Africa.

“We must commit to ending the widespread mismanagement of aging,“ says Richard Blewitt, Chief Executive Officer of HelpAge International, a partner to the U.N. Population Fund. “Social protection and age-friendly health care are essential to extend the independence of healthy older people and prevent impoverishment in old age.” (Source: Reuters)
Rising greenhouse gas emissions (4/10)

Activists, environmentalists and representatives from developing nations had tentatively high hopes for 2012’s Doha climate talks, but once again the reality fell far short of expectations. Dismissed by some as a failure, the talks did produce a 2015 deadline for further greenhouse gas emissions reductions, but critics claim this is simply yet another stall tactic that will result in developed nations continuing to “kick the can down the road” rather than make solid financial and political commitments to tackling climate change. (Source: Reuters)
Extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices: (5/10)

Food and fuel price volatility has a variety of impacts on both producers and consumers, many of them negative. Rising fuel costs have been cited as affecting everything from corporate profits and efficiency to unemployment rates. The interconnected nature of food and fuel means that a price spike in one commodity causes a price spike in the other, and the increase in biofuel production and consumption has only further complicated the issue. (Source: Reuters)
Failure of climate change adaptation (6/10)

As climate change continues to result in more extreme weather, from droughts to floods to heat waves, countries – especially disaster-prone developing nations – must invest effort and money into mitigating the effects. This could require a financial investment of over $100 billion per year, according to the World Bank.

But the risk of failing to adapt and address climate change are even greater: a 2012 report from DARA, an international humanitarian agency, revealed that climate change is responsible for global economic losses close to 1% of world GDP for 2010 – and that climate change-related deaths could exceed 100 million by 2030. (Source: Reuters)
Severe income disparity (7/10)

Widening gaps between the richest and poorest citizens reflect ongoing inequality and the potential for political and social unrest around the world. This map visualizes differences in national income disparities around the world measured by their Gini coefficient. The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality – everyone has the same income; and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality – one person has all the income, and everyone else has zero income. The areas shown in dark red on the map have the greatest income inequality, while those in bright blue have the lowest inequality. (Source: Wikimedia Commons, CIA World Report 2009)
Persistent extreme weather (8/10)

In 2012, losses from natural disasters equaled $160 billion worldwide according to reinsurer Munich Re, with much of the figure to due to damage from Hurricane Sandy, which cost approximately $50 billion overall. The severe U.S. drought caused agricultural crop losses of around $20 billion.

Elsewhere in the world, Typhoon Bopha caused over 1,000 deaths in the Philippines – the most deadly natural catastrophe of the year.

Munich Re also noted that the year’s catastrophic events were “dominated by weather extremes” attributable to climate change. “With no apparent prospect of progress in international climate negotiations like those held recently in Doha, adaptation to such hazards using suitable protective measures is absolutely essential,” said Prof. Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re's Geo Risks Research. (Source: Reuters)
Food shortage crises (9/10)

Extreme weather, population growth, rising prices and geopolitical discord all contribute to food shortages. The global food system has become critically unstable, and political unrest has worsened the issue in countries such as Syria, where the ongoing civil war has blocked humanitarian efforts to deliver food to at least 1 million people.

Approximately 14% of the world’s population, or 1 billion people worldwide, already suffers from malnutrition, and increases in food prices due to commodities speculation, climate change and other factors can worsen already dire prospects. (Source: Reuters)
Global governance failure (10/10)

In an increasingly globalized, interconnected world, localized risks have now become global risks. The global financial crisis and climate change are only two of the major issues which require global collaboration and coordinated policy-making efforts. The ongoing struggles of the Eurozone have highlighted the various economic and political difficulties in achieving this collaboration across multinational borders; nevertheless, the challenges and risks of the 21st century have so far compelled the EU to remain intact.

From the Global Policy Journal: “The rise of systemic risk requires a systemic response. Effective global governance and policy development has never been so necessary and urgent. “ (Source: Reuters)